Health Care Debt

What Amerian’s Want

A Nov 11th CBS poll on What Americans think is the biggest problem facing the country:

  • 56% Jobs & the Economy
  • 14% Health care
  • Next -Other problems
  • 4% the deficit.

Frankly, The American Public got it right. If we don’t fix JOBS and the ECONOMY the rest is NOT going to matter. The Tea Patry’s feeding frenzy over the deficit is almost totally irrelevant now.

What will Obama do? History;

  • Caved into generals/military industrial complex over endless wars – Iraq, Afghanistan, War on Terror and probable future wars Iran Pakistan etc.
  • Caved in to Insurance companies on Health Care. FYI – Repealing Heath Care law would mean Insurance companies would loose cash cow of @30+ more Americans covered. Hard to see a total repeal.
  • Caved into shadow banks over stringent reforms that helped cause global recession.

Think its a safe bet here that Obama will cave in or nicer word compromise (then cave in) to some major industrial sector or their media outlets (Fox news etc) decide.    What should Obama, who has spent the last 10 days outside the country, do ?

  • Focus on Jobs, Jobs, Jobs.
  • Reincarnate Teddy Roosevelt as listen to him
  • Learn to communicate your successes.

Tomorrow – What Obama/Democrats has done and failed to communicate.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.08% down
NASDQ -0.17% down
S&P -0.12% down
Russell 2000 +0.09% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

Three significant factors on yesterday’s stocks.

  • Very light volume
  • Horrible inter day action where a rally collapsed into the close
  • We held onto last weeks  & Friday’s down stock indexes.

All this is bearish but tempered by light volume.

USO – The ETF we are using to monitor commodities did the same and ended up a small +0.08% yesterday. After falling a huge -3.62% Friday the USO held onto those losses = Bearish

New factor – The Bond Sharks are out. Yields on bonds are rising. (Click on Treasury Bonds under Financial Charts on far right of blog) Bonds compete with stocks for investors so this is bearish news for stocks.

Significant Indexes – NB The 10 year Treasury Bond is back as a factor

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar rose a significant  +0.56% yesterday. Broke one resistance level yesterday and is at $78.52 A second major resistance level is the falling 50 DMA at $78.62. For stocks = Bearish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]Fell  another  -2.25% yesterday. Major support recently broken and BDI keeps falling at 2+% each day = Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] was flat at -54.43 yesterday.  = Oversold/Neutral
  • 10 Year Treasury Bond (TNX) [Bonds compete with stocks for Investors. Rising TNX also signals inflation. Rising yields bad for stocks] Rose a massive 5.2% yesterday and broke a resistance level. For stocks = Bearish

Reading The Tea Leaves8 Charging Bears

There are about 8 bearish signals flashing in today’s Investors411 vs. 2 Bullish signals – Light volume show not much panic over 8 charging bears and the MO is almost oversold.

If 8 bears were charging me I’d run and hide behind a support level – In this case the 50 Day Moving Averages for the major stock indexes. Who knows what’s in the minds of the High Frequency Traders. Perhaps faith in QE2 is built into a lot of their algorithms. However, they did NOT even attempt to rescue stocks at the end of the day. Bear # 9

Most significant forecasting ETF to watch

  • The dollar (UUP the tracking ETF) - Most likely the significant resistance level will hold,
  • Overbought commodities - (USO the tracking stock)

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

  • EWS (Singapore) Bought for 11.99 on 8/17 Sold yesterday at 14.01 for +17% gain.
  • TYH (3x tech stocks) . Sold the last 1/2 TYH at 40.44 yesterday, Bought 11/11 for 4o.63 Loss 0/1% Total gain trade (including first 1/2 = a minor +2%.

Threw in the towel on long positions after markets started to deteriorate (see above) yesterday.

Investors411 has No long positions at this time. Even our YOUR Stock List is under construction.

Traders. There was no big dip (Dow down 100+ points) to buy on yesterday. I’d be more cautious about going long today. (see 8 charging bears above) Personally I’d use positions like ROM (2x techs) & UWM (2X small caps) to start. TYH (3X techs) l& EDC (3X Emerging Markets) seem too risky right now.

Investors – Lets wait for the MO to close below -60 before even considering buying. Right now it looks like bears are going to run right through -60 and @-130 was the May low for the MO.

—-

  • Your First Stock List made @ +24% from 2/11 to 5/20 vs @ +11% for the S&P 500
  • Your Second Stock List made @ +26% from 8/4 to 11/5 vs @ +9% for the S&P 500

Paul & I will be going over the list and coming out with YOUR Stock List #3 by next Monday. We have about 30+ stocks to choose from and the eventual list will be from @ 12 to 15 stocks like the last lists.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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