What Now?

Perhaps the most analyzed result of finally killing the world’s #1 terrorist is what should the US foreign policy be? The Huffington Post is featuring a column by Amanda Turkel that starts –

“Okay, can we finally withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan? That’s the question many people are asking in reaction to Osama bin Laden’s death.”

The painful  reality is we have fought two empire building wars that cost American’s dearly

  • Iraq & Afghanistan nation building had nothing to do with catching Osama Bin Laden – he was in Pakistan
  • Only the first Afghan war was justifiable because Bin Laden was there.
  • Cost us $1.3 trillion and lots more when the final numbers are in (well over double)
  • Cost us 10s of thousands in killed and seriously wounded Americans and even more innocent civilians.
  • Our Occupation Was the #1 recruiting tool for NEW terrorists worldwide
  • Cost us many of our civil liberties.
  • Made fear mongering the dominant political force in America.
  • There’s more but time is short.

We’ve seen there are better ways to fight terrorist than pouring $$$$$$$$$$$ into nation building wars

  • Elite US forces stopped a Somali Pirates.
  • Elite US forces killed the leader of al Qaeda in Somalia and fellow terrorists
  • Elite US  killed Osama Bin Laden

Our biggest victories have come at 1/1000 the financial cost. It’s way past time to learn from our mistakes. The arab world desperately wants democracy and freedom, not jihad against Americans. Why give them an excuse to foment jihad by occupying their lands? Yes Obama has show a different way to achieve better results – Change we can believe in.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.02% down
NASDQ -0.33% down
S&P 500 -0.18% down
Russell 2000 -1.22% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Another low volume day – Stocks fell this time.
  • Repeat from last weekWhile individual earnings reports do impact each stock the High Frequency Traders and their super computers sill dominate the market by making up 70+% of all trades.
  • Silver’s parabolic run has finally caught up with it and SLV closed down -8.64%. This is a people forced to cover those huge amount of calls placed SLV. It will probably continue.
  • Stocks opened higher on the bin Laden news, but had no idea of what to do with it, and stocks fell as the dollar rallied.
  • Things that make you go hmm –  The oversold dollar is down 8 of the last 9 days – Why didn’t the bin Laden news strengthen the dollar???
  • Globally, stocks down on interest rate hike fears.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Down, then rallied yesterday and ended up -0.12 yesterday. Another a three year low. Clear longer and shorter term bearish trend. For US stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Fell  to+ 27.32 from above +45. Above zero which is bearish, but not overbought = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

What to watch today - Forget stocks and watch the dollar

  • UUP(Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - Usually the dollar is a contrarian indicator for stocks. Any major fall may give temporary help to US stocks, but a major breakdown also signal major structural problems with the USA

Stocks are a bit less overbought with the MO at 27. But still not below 0. Below -60 is where buying becomes desirable.

Some mid term changes to YSL #4 listed below. (have not had a chance to put them in Positions Section yet)

SLV finally burst its bubble. This was mostly due to CME increasing the margin requirements on Silver. Gold moved down in sympathy and perhaps stocks too. Once a panic starts  ( and -9% is a panic) its hard to pick a bottom.

You’d think the oversold dollar would have rallied on bin Laden’s death, but didn’t. Very strange and I’m a a loss to explain this one. But it just may be a sign the dollar is going much lower.

Gold has a mini flash crash on the COMEX exchange. Perhaps a bear run by entities seeking to start panic gold selling

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Paul’s Corner

YSL 4’s performance has been trying at times due to a small market down turn when it was released and due  primarily to market rotation out of the tech stocks and into the commodities.   Most of the stocks in YSL 4  are currently doing well and most of those who corrected are showing some life.

ADTN and JNPR appear to still be correcting,  in fact they are dropping while their respective industry groups are  performing well. Any time a stock performs against it’s group you need the evaluate your position.

Barr and I have discussed over the past few weeks dropping a few of the YSL 4 stocks and adding some new candidates. The following stocks will replace ADTN and JNPR in “Your Stock List”:

LYB LyondellBasell Industries N.V., together with its subsidiaries, primarily manufactures and sells chemicals and polymers worldwide.  The company’s Refining and Oxyfuels segment offers refined petroleum products consisting of gasoline, ultra-low sulfur diesel, jet fuel, lubricants, alkylate, and oxygenated fuels, such as methyl tertiary butyl ether and ethyl tertiary butyl ether. The company was founded in 2005 and is based in Rotterdam, Netherlands.

John S mentioned LYB a few weeks ago (Thanks John!) and HGSI daily screens have recently picked it up. LYB released it’s earnings yesterday May 2 and handily beat estimates. It  also has a superb “tight” LLUR – Lower Left Upper Right chart pattern.  This is the kind of chart you want in a stock.

RNOW Rightnow Technologies, Inc. Bozeman, Montana,  provides cloud-based customer experience software products and services. The company primarily offers RightNow CX, a customer experience suite for consumer-centric organizations to enable interactions across Web, social, and contact center touch points. Rightnow Technologies, Inc. serves various industries, such as technology, public sector, retail/consumer packaged goods, entertainment, financial services, telecommunication, and travel and hospitality industries

RNOW released earnings last week that beat estimates and had excellent revenue. Some analysts questioned the numbers and the CEO mentioned while revenues were good, earnings were off slightly due to expenses of opening more offices and hiring new employees. So we have a cloud company that specializes in social interaction on the web that is growing. As with any growth tech company it’s more speculation at this point but it’s current growth rate is +24% a year.

LYB reported yesterday so give the chart a few days to settle down, RNOW reported last week and at the time of this writing a buy could be considered.

Since we like to track “Your Stock List” performance, making this current change an accurate analysis can’t be made so I’m proposing we call this modified group YSL 4.5 which we will track from  May 3. We can and will also track YSL 4 for comparison.

Disclaimer: I’m long both stocks and please don’t buy on my comments. YOU are responsible for your children’s inheritance! If either of these two dogs fall off a cliff you are on your own, understand?

Look for Paul R’s enlightened views on stocks ing the comment section of blog

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Positions

See POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Disclosure - I have personal  positions in REMX, DGP, UWM, RJA (smaller) and manage a fund that has a 5 year position in GLD.

  • Sold the smaller position in silver for 4% loss yesterday.  But overall huge gains in April for SLV.
  • DDM (double Dow) is doing far better than UWM – Big cap stocks have more exposure to foreign markets and benefit from falling dollar. Moving into this area.
  • DGP – lightening up double long gold ETF, till SLV settles.

SLV went into free fall yesterday. The climax sell off has finally come. An outside fundamental factor was the catalyst that started the free fall. (see above) It does have support levels at 40 and 37.59 It’s 50 day moving average.  Right now a buy is like trying to catch a falling knife.

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Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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