Will Any of YOU Defend Obama?

Obama Jobs Summit

huffington post phot

Check out the last 4 comments on the right side of the Blog starting with Bob Sadinsky’s – “Republican Lite” Besides someone else would have done worse (McCain & Palin) is there anyone out there who will sing Obama’s praise?

D. pointed out Tom Friedman’s we need nation building at home not Afghanistan  -  LINK Popeye does damn with faint praise – Afghanistan speech was a brilliant political move for Obama & Abby Gold reminds us what’s happened in Afghanistan to invaders for the last 100 years.

One of you privately sent me an email of someone very significant who praised Obama on Afghanistan – Mike Huckabee LINK Huckabee was the leading Republican candidate for president. Unfortunately, he’s toast as a candidate. He granted clemency to the guy who killed the 4 cops sitting in a Washington cafe.

Huckabee might not have  been your political cup of tea, but he was a decent guy who, like Obama made overtures to fellow American’s who disagreed with him. The Republican’s leading alternative is probably Sarah Palin – God help us.

So here’s some Obama good news from me besides he gives eloquent speeches – Bank of America is repaying $45 billion of its TARP loan with interest, the economy is clearly stronger as measured by GDP (in part due to stimulus package) and the rate of job loss is declining.

Remember Larry Wilkerson’s words from yesterday’s Update -

“If you are a praying person, he {Obama} needs your prayers and support. If you are not, he needs your support. Because all of us Americans put him where he is–and I do not mean by votes. We–all of us–let George W. Bush and Richard B. Cheney set us up. Moreover, we all contributed to creating the perilous fiscal state that is now a more dangerous threat to our country than any terrorist could ever hope to be”


Keep It Simple Stupid


Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.18% down
NASDQ +0.42% down
S&P500 +0.03% down
Russell2000 +1.17% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

The dollar rose a modest +0.34% and this seemed to keep a lid on a growing desire for stocks to rally.  Were in December so I guess you can call it a Santa Clause rally led by internet retailers like recommended AMZN (at new high)

Bernanke’s confirmation hearing goes in front of congress today. No matter what you feel about the guy, if he does not get confirmed it will hurt stocks.

Jobs # for November on Friday.

Now going to get a bit more technical

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK


Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI rose +82 points yesterday and closed at 3836. Technically  the BDI broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high) over a week ago.  The BDI has rallied about 1700 points since late September. After 16 up days in a row, 9 down days in a row & down through the former resistance/now support level 0f 4291 . This is a chart that usually gives off signals – the rate of decline was slowing and yesterday turned.

What it means – Long term we created a higher high on the chart = Bullish. The BDI is far more useful as a long term indicator of not only world trade, but specifically China and growing emerging markets. Recent price drop-Nothing to panic about yet


The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar rose  +0.30% yesterday . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant  The dollar closed at $74.64


$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +25.24 This is a slightly Overbought Position . This chart is showing we seemed to have reached a plateau. It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 .  There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month,. Oversold conditions (@ -60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell

The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal


The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

This section need to be updated – Sold 8% (24 to 16 % position in portfolio) of FXI and all of DGP. Taking profits was a mistake and bought back all of DGP (Double gold) & 1/2 of FXI.  This all happened because yours truly got spooked over the Dubai crisis.

Recommended ETF’s

Gold (GLD & DGP) – (recommended positions) is also at a new high. Warning – this ETF is starting to go parabolic (up too far too fast) Perhaps we have reached the top of the parabola. If  we have another day or two of volume increase and major price move (above 1%) we will probably get at least a short term hit. Long term holders – the fundamentals are still good. Traders and shorter term investors keep a close on this growing parabola. Time to take some profits – now or in next few days (depending on escalation of price & volume)  Sell into the parabola

MOO – Our new agriculture ETF is also at a new yearly high and on a breakout run.  Each of the recommended ETF (except anything that is 2x or 3x a sector or country) is hopefully a long term position.  This stock is fundamentally aided by the growing middle classes of India and China eating better and a falling dollar.

EWZ (Brazil) – Again at a new high.

FXI – Overall excellent for the year, but lagging right now and within a few percentage points of new high,

NVS -(A stock, not an ETF) Our swine flu play – we had a nice run with this stock now up over 20% – It is a solid company, but it was mainly a swine flu play.  Our town is getting out shots on the 7th.   We already took 1/2 the profits on NVS and will take the rest in any slight rally. The scare is diminishing. This stock had a big volume decline yesterday. Looks like the momentum players are heading for the exits.


See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog


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