Bada Bing, Bada Bang, Bada Boom!

YOUR Stock List gained +14.4% vs. a gain of +1.5% for the benchmark S&P 500. Just like YOUR first stock list earlier this year we crushed our benchmark index over the last 6+ weeks. (more below)

Fear Mongering/Globalization/Jobs

The biggest plate of warm turds being fear mongered to the US public through the Tea Party and like minded folks is that if we don’t extend tax cuts on the ruling oligarchy job growth will suffer.

Investors411 readers already know that jobs are being outsourced abroad through “scaling”.

Now, lets take a look at some figures from when we had the massive tax cut to the rich in 2000 to today. Figures are from the Financial Times and if you would like a video presentation check out Cenk Uyger’s presentation (sorry short add before 4 minute presentations)

  1. $1.3 trillion in tax cuts for the rich since 2000.(not compounded) Result – we loose 7.3 million jobs.
  2. 1950 to 1990 we have 3.5 to 7.4% real growth Compare - 2000 to now 1% real growth.
  3. 1950 to 1990 investment in equipment & software 5.7% to 9.9% Compare – 2000 to now 1.9%

So where did all that money go?

  1. Emerging markets grew 120% Compare to -6% for the USA (FSCI emerging market stock index)
  2. US investment abroad in 2000 $1.3 trillion Compare to now $3.2 trillion

This means that the our weathy oligarchy spent $1.9 trillion (much more than just their $1.3 tax cut dollars) in creating jobs jobs jobs in China India and throughout the globalized economy.

Add to this figure Shadow banks money going abroad, TARP money going abroad, and US corporations building and investing abroad.  The American working class is getting crushed by our corporate oligarchy.

PostscriptIf you like you can officially call me a hypocrite. Because for 6 years I’ve been telling anyone who’d listen to invest in emerging markets. If you go to the POSITIONS section at top of blog and click on it. Scroll down and you will find a list of emerging market recommended ETF’s to invest in. We have made money together

My only defense is every major US company is globally connected to some degree. Even smaller companies are at least indirectly connected to globalization.

But the Bottom Line isTax those who profit most off globalization and use it to help the US working class who are getting clobbered.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.07% up
NASDQ -0.28% up
S&P -0.26% up
Russell 2000 -0.79% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for September - “The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.

US Markets

Very Strange – Usually the big rally day (2 days ago) has more volume than the confirmation day that follows. We did basically hold onto the gains so the rally is confirmed. However this and what’s happened in the dollar (see below) are breaking usual patterns.

Bada Bing Bada Bang, Bada Boom

Paul R has computed the results of YOUR Stock List (more info in  POSITION section at top of blog)

14.4% UP! Your Stock List (based on a dollar weighted index) from 8/3 to the close on 9/20! S&P 500 was up about 1.5% at the same time. PCLN has enjoyed a 48% gain during this time and it skews the return of the whole list a bit, but the dollar weighted chart buys an equal dollar amount of each stock so PCLN doesn’t effect the chart too much.

Here are the actual PERCENTAGE gains of the stock on the list from the 8/3 close to the 9/20 close.

AAPL 8.37
BIDU 7.75
SAM 1.95
UFS 4.39
F -1.59
GMCR 18.70
HMIN 12.60
IMAX 6.57
PCLN 48.91
RADS 25.46
SWKS 17.87
UPS 1.02
VCI -3.81

After yesterdays pop, many of these stocks “may” pause to refresh for a day or two (maybe). When a stock pauses to refresh like this, and takes off again this may give a chance to buy.”

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, crashed  -1.10% yesterday. It ended the day right above key support level. = Bullish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Fell a -2.51%yesterday.  The BDI does not have the immediate impact that the MO or Dollar does. 7th down day in a row, with rate of fall decreasing. After 8 week bull run trend could be changing to bearish,= Neutral/Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO fell  to +23.67 yesterday.  A huge drop considering how small the fall was on the NYSE. Back just above 50 DMA/ support level which is at 19.03 Trend = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

Something’s big is happening. The dollar fell a huge -1.10% and this usually translates into a sizable stock rally. Yet equities went nowhere. We are just above major support for the dollar. Is the inverse relationship between stocks & the dollar breaking down? Is the dollar @ to crash and burn? This answer is above my pay level.

Reality is there a whole lot of major institutions doing a whole lot of market manipulation (hedge funds, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, BB/HFT’s etc.)

One clear pattern/trend developing – We keep bumping up close to +60 on the MO & stocks can’t get beyond this now strong resistance level. It might be that stocks are just too overbought to move higher.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

Current Longer Term positions -

  • EWS (Singapore)
  • USO (price of oil/commodity)
  • SSO (2x what S&P does- this ETF is more a trade that may turn into an investment) I have a 3% trailing stop on this trade

If, we get up over +60 on the MO and  the Dow/major indexes rally – that would be a selling or shorting point.

Recommendations -For everyone who uses trailing stops on trades -It may be time to tighten them. If you’ve made profits over the last month, no one ever went broke by cashing some of them in. That’s what the Tea Leaves seem to be saying.

Long Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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