Wall Street 1867

Grading Financial Reform

From Seeking Alpha (this financial site does some independent thinking and has almost 459,000 members –  including me) This is a really good analysis by Linus Wilson. It covers major points and gives grades.

  • Resolution Authority
  • Derivatives Authority
  • Ratings Agency Reform
  • Bank Tax (extra credit)
  • Breaking Up the Big Banks (extra credit)

Senate voted not to debate on party lines so fillabuster held. One Nebraska senator wanted a special exemption for WarrenBuffett’s 65 billion dollars of derivatives.  Buffett called derivatives financial weapons of mass distruction.

Conservative David Brooks at NYT has a differnet take in his editorial today Dumb but decent meets smart and sleazy in the Washington drama over how to prevent another financial meltdown” on GoldmanSachs

YOUR STOCK LIST

Lots of Winners last week

This list has been developed by YOU sending in your stock picks, we discuss them individually (usually by email) and if they are trending positively andare liquid they get included in YOUR list. Thanks to many of you who have sent in choices. If you payed attention to the List published on each Tuesday or Wednesday, you’ll find a lot of winners

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.01% down
NASDQ -0.28% down
S&P 500 +0.43% up
Russell 2000 -0.41% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Eyes are turning to the Fed announcement on Wednesday -Will they in some nuanced way change the language of their statement on interest rates?

Nothing extraordinary in volume and/or market moves yesterday.

Ford seems to have done wellwith its earnings report. = Bullish

GS in front of congress = Bearish

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell  to +7.47 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. - This is  NEUTRAL territory
  • US Dollar – fell slightly -0.04% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules Is very important. Remember, dollar down almost always = stocks up and visa versa. Dollar in middle f consolidation.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

YOUR STOCK LIST

Caution- This is mostly just technical analysis and lots of other factors enter into a decision to buy or sell

Caution – We are in the middle of earnings season and a bad or good earnings report can move these stocks @2 to 10+% Many of these stocks are moving in anticipation of or reacting to earnings reports. This has to be considered before you buy/sell

  • Last Week’s comments in black.
  • This week’s violet.
  • Ticker symbols are links to charts.
  • Line means stock is in danger of being taken off list.

If you have trouble with terminology email me. 5oDMA = 50 Day Moving Average – blue line on chart.

Well aware that most of you are looking for longer term buys. Remember Stocks are in most cases riskier than most ETF’s. Our main strategy is to buy the dip of a stock that is trending higher.

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

  • CAAS –   – Risky – Now or never time to buy Winner exploded to new high, overextended – wait
  • PCLN –   Close to 50 day MA support level. A buy the dip stock. Winner exploded to new high – overextended – wait
  • F –  . Risky buy now, better on dip. Winner. Over extended now buy the dip
  • CSCO,    All these stocks (AMZN & AAPL) are to high above their 50 Day MA, especially apple Wait for dip. Winners All 3 are too far above 50DMA to chase, but buy a dip.
  • SHOO –  . Dipping down, but still too overextended. Buy bigger dip. Winner Over extended but could have another 5 -7% dip then run left in it. Risky
  • ICON,     a little overextended Buy the dip. Longer term investors wait for bigger dip Winner Way overextended looks like climax run wait for dip
  • DGIT –    Traders buy a dip. Investors wait for bigger dip – WinnerBit overextended traders buy smaller dip Investors bigger dip.
  • VCI. Twice dipped to 50 day MA and held, but volume could be better on rally days = riskier. Buy the dip. Winner – Bounced of 50 DMA & at new high – Traders buy smaller and Investors bigger dip
  • CREE –  Now dipping. Traders could buy if it dips some more. Investors wait. Big dip then rally, now consolidating, traders buy smaller and investors bigger dip.
  • SNDK – Dipping. Traders buy small dips, Investors wait. Winner on earnings news – overextended – wait
  • CTRP . Weak volume small rally then Fell in big volume Rallied in weak volume – Don’t touch – wait

IMAX is Investor’s411 #1 recommended stock. The others are theater chains that benefit from raised 3d ticket prices and attendance. But they are also impacted by overall box office. Therefore IMAX is a more favorable based on the technology.

  • *CNK (Cinemark) Too overextended to buy Winner Traders buy smaller dip Investors wait for bigger dip closer to 50DMA
  • RGC (Regal Entertainment)  Dipped and rallied yesterday too much volume behind fall wait. Consolidating – Wait for 50 DMA to catch up.
  • *IMAX . Traders buy dip Investors wait. UP over +60% since recommended Winner Still pushing higher and overextended – wait
  • CKEC (Carmike Cinemas) Overextended.  Wait for bigger dip. Winner Still pushing higher and overextended – wait

32 million new heath care customers (Obama/Pelosi health care bill) means some stocks are going to rally on this increased supply and the growing aging population of baby boomers who need health care. Hopefully long term buys. Will be slow movers relative to other smaller cap stocks.

  • *ESRX (Express Scripts) – Slow melt up hopefully this is a long term hold Big dip,big rally – wait. Made higher high & now consolidating – wait.
  • *TEVA (Teva Pharmaceuticals)  If you don’t own buy dip at 50 day MA/support Broke through 50 DMA and simply looks like a bad trade. This was bought when it was too far above its 50 DMA – looks lke a mistake.

New Stocks - I’d add more but its very time consuming. Many thanks to Paul R, Monitor and some others who prefer to remain nameless for suggestions.

  • VLTR . Closer the dip to 50 Day MA the better the buy Winner, now potential breakout candidate.
  • UAUA Dipping in weak volume = good. Traders buy smaller dip Investors wait for 50 day MA Winner if you bought dip closer to 50 DMA. Now, Riskier  buy the dip
  • SLAB Classic cup and handle breakout. Even more extended – buy a bigger  dip Dipped Traders buy smaller dip Investors wait. Winner if you bought the dip. Now riskier buy the dip
  • MSPD But now that the dust has settled buy the dip. Winner has rallied off 50 DMA. Now riskier buy on dip

Analysis – The McClellan Oscillator was at -37.70 last Tuesday. This Tuesday its at +7.47. Last Tuesday, therefore, was a better time to buy. The closer to -60 the better or more oversold US markets are and the better it is to buy.  So until we dip deep into the red buying stocks is less likely to turn out favorably – make $$$

Lots of winners last week because of a low McClellanOscillator and some good earnings report. Carefull this week a lot of our stocks are over extended and MickyC is higer.

Very rough guesstimate of how much of your odds of successful trade/investment when McClellan Oscillator is at the following levels.

  • +60 (overbought) = 25%
  • 0 (neutral) = 50%
  • -60 (oversold)= 75%

* =  Investors411 has a position in these stocks.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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