Ahmed Sharif

Photo of stabbed NYC Muslim Cabbie.

Mother of All Traffic Jams

Just How fast is China growing? Just how much does China need more infrastructure? – Now a nine day 60 mile long traffic jam outside the capital - Video

US Islamophobia Grows

Allegedly drunk NYC guy cuts throat of cabbie after he responded yes to question –  Are you a Muslim? He’s being charged with hate crime Story

Pop Quiz

I’ll buy dinner to anyone over 40 who gets this right and hasn’t seen the list. It says a lot about where our country is headed. Here’s a  List of the top 50 social media sites on the web. Can you guess who/what is #1? Nasty Hint Obama is #3

Bruce Lee Plays Ping Pong

Phenomenal add run on China TV by Nokia. You’re not going to believe this (Thanks to AG for the find) It takes @ 15 seconds till the OMG part.- VIDEO

Housing & Wealth Creation

Fabulous article by James Kwak at Baselne Senerio. Own a Home or thinking of buying one? You must check out the article and graph

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.20% down
NASDQ +0.84% down
S&P 500 +0.33% down
Russell 2000 +1.56% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the monthThe Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades.

The Symphony

Because the High Frequency Traders (HFT’s) use their Black Box algorithms to trade across markets there is a  phenomenally higher degree of correlation between stocks, currencies, commodities (especially oil) and other markets. One inverse correlation has become very crucial in this symphony. That’s the inverse relationship between the dollar and US markets. This is why the US dollar is one of the Indexes followed by Investors411.

Yesterday’s Stock Markets

Even the market cheerleaders on the main financial channel CNBC seem to be growling bears about US & therefore world stocks.

A typical rally day in deceased volume. Because of the BB/HFT’s volume is no longer the #1 forecast tool of major indexes.

We again had absolutely horrible housing news that was worse than expected, yet oversold markets rallied.  How markets react to news is a good indicator of the near term future. For now really bad news is built into stock prices.

Today we will have another bad weekly unemployment report. Since we’re still close to oversold on the MO it will probably take some really bad figures to toast stocks.

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD)  [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar was flat (up a smidge) for third day in a row, +0.14% yesterday.  Two week rally in place. Now facing resistance at 50DMA. Three flat days in a row could signal a reversal of trend & the dollar start to drop. But until this happens, for stocks outlook = Bearish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Fell -3.08% yesterday. First fall in a 5+ week long rally. Long rallies are typical in the BDI. This could be a reversal of trend and bad for emerging markets. If BDI fall increases today the outlook will change to bearish = Neutral
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose  to -48.98 Slipped out of, but is still close to oversold territory = Neutral

Reading Tea Leaves

The massive currency/Dollar market is still key to stocks. Fundamentally, parts of Europe are so bad off its hard to see the dollar not rise in relation to the Euro and therefore probably move higher in relationship to all currencies. UUP the dollar ETF is still what to watch.  It goes one way and stocks will go the other.

Yesterday was probably NOT the near term low for US equities. But remember rallies start from oversold bounces. The last oversold bounce saw a 3 day rally, the two before that 3 week rallies. Of course, everything could get shattered if the dollar soars or we have a really really bad weekly employment number.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions - Small positions in EWS (Singapore) USO (commodity-Oil) & slightly larger in TYH

Traders – Bought TYH at 24.68 & sold 1/2 for +3% gain at 25.50 (10% of portfolio position now 5%) Stop set at 24.43 and will move it higher in a rally. Reasoning behind trade – MO oversold. Big dip at open & double bottom formed. The dollar was flat so I pulled the trigger.

Investors – Any time the MO closes below (if you willing to take more risk – close to) -60 and the markets dip further is a chance to purchase one of the long emerging market of energy rich country ETF’s. See List in Positions. It’s safer to do this if the MO is below -80 and still safer if it goes beyond -100

Long Term Outlook - NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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