” it’s difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary [or portfolio or election] depends on his not understanding it. Upton Sinclair

Some Examples

  • Shadow BanksThe largest financial meltdown in history in 2008 and more fraud revealed over phony mortgage documents – No one goes to Jail. No massive amounts of money go to fund regulators, no return to the rules that prevented the crisis. All the politicians from Obama on down look the other way because it is the Wall Street money that gets them elected.
  • The Poor  The Children and The ElderlyWall Street shows record profits and bonuses. GE and other corporate giants pay NO taxes. Taxes for the wealthiest in the USA have been slashed for decades and off shore accounts abound. Our Central Bank is flooding its members shadow institutions with money.  Who will Republican politicians sacrifice for financial gain? Not those who fund their elections.
  • Climate Change“So the joke begins like this: An economist, a lawyer and a professor of marketing walk into a room. What’s the punch line? They were three of the five “expert witnesses” Republicans called for last week’s Congressional hearing on climate science.” One scientist was funded by the billionaire industrialist Koch Brothers  (they also fund the Tea Party) but he reversed his position (Paul Krugman) and is now an outcast.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.46% down
NASDQ +0.31% up
S&P 500 +0.50% flat
Russell 2000 +0.38% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more. Remember Fed liquidity (POMO, QE 2 or quantitative easing) announced ending is June 30th.

  • Yawn - Another low volume rally. Fed liquidity has a muzzle muzzle on the mouths of bears.
  • Jobs numbers have improved dramatically -700,000 when Obama took office to +216,000 last month
  • Now Bulls have two strong fundamentals – Jobs are recovering and Fed’s liquidity injections.-
  • A jobs good number Friday started a rally that got hurt by rising oil prices (Libya and upcoming NIgeria elections) and falling APPL stock. So gains were tempered.
  • New quarter and attention will turn to earnings.
  • Emerging Markets are red hot right now and exploding higher – Rally leaders.
  • Monday’s are often the best day of week for stocks.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar saw a huge rally collapse and ended  a wee bit lower -0.03. Chart pattern showing volatility/erratic so short term hard to call, but longer term bearish  For stocks = Bullish/Neutral
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to +52.29. Over past three months The MO has had problems getting over +30. This is, therefore, the highest the MO has been since early September 2010 = Bearish

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Reading The Tea Leaves

  • Technically, the MO is screaming oversold.
  • Fundamentally Japan keeps getting worse ( more tons of radioactive water dumped into ocean -11500 tons today). Libya is a stalemate and looking like a quagmire. Great if your a weapons manufacturer, but bad if your the taxpayer funding them or worse if you’re getting killed.
  • Europe still titters on the brink with the many PIIGS near default.
  • Housing figures are deteriorating as is consumer confidence
  • Our financial system is still corrupt and protected by the vast majority of politicians form both parties. – No one goes to jail
  • Our markets are still manipulated by our Central Bank – by keeping dollar low, zero % interest rates, buying federal debt, and adding liquidity.

All the above would absolutely toast any other stock market. However we bubblisciously move higher.

When will the bubble pop?

The dollar is the key metric to watch. What’s holding the dollar up is that the other major currencies are also so bad – Europe and Japan.

What to watch today - Market movers – UUP still has most influential, unless others make some huge move.

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya not good.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Tech giant and market mover – Trading below its 50 DMA. Since mid February this char shows a series of lower highs and lower lows = Bearish
  • Japan Rector Developments – This keeps getting worse.
  • EEM – Emerging market ETF – On a breakout run, but getting over extended.

Bottom LineFighting the Fed is a loosing strategy. They Rule.

Stocks are significantly oversold, but there are many in the wings waiting to buy the oversold dip. Now is not the time to buy most stocks wait for the dip

June 30th is the day POMO stops and this could pop the bubble. But, until then dramatic rises in energy or a fall in the dollar are the critical warning signs. Remember, A slowly falling dollar is good in the short term for stocks. A huge fall show lack of confidence in the USA.

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Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. Below is the actively managed portfolio #3 – Aggressive ETF Trading – To follow this and Portfolio #4 Your Stock List keep an eye on the daily blog and the comment section.

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Due to your emails, I’m going to alter the shorter term ETF section below, even though they have excellent record since the start of the year.

Instead tomorrow I’ll list some ETF to hold for a longer term than a few days, weeks or month. Most of them will be from the list below. The major difference is Investors411 will NOT be so quick to buy and sell.

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced.

  • UWM. (2x long small cap stocks) Sold 1/2 for +5% gain. Remainder sold at 50.00 for +15% gain Total = +10% Position closed
  • SLV (silver) bought at 36.38 on Friday. (7% stop loss on position) Hopeful  the first longer term position.

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. -

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.  A risk, but, this area because of limited supply and big demand is going to outperform almost all other sectors. A buy.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Gold is moving inversely to the dollar - I’ve jaw boned this for way too long and waited for the right dip, but missed it.  This is a credible long term asset to have. I’d buy any dip. I do own both in other accounts.

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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