Putting together YOUR Stock List takes a lot of time (every Tuesday), so there is no economics/political section today. Sorry

If you would like to add names to the stock list or want to get on the private mail list that sometimes get additional info – email me at barrjozwicki@gmail.com. Please check out your comments section on right side of blog.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.41% down
NASDQ +0.88% down
S&P 500 +0.51% down
Russell 2000 +1.34% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Despite some bad news on Greek debt and fears of greater financial reform US stocks moved higher in significantly reduced volume.  Moving higher on bad news is a bullish signal

VOLUME – The bible of technical analysis, and virtually all other books on reading chart patterns, Edwards and Magee’s Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, says this, “Volume is of the utmost importance in all technical phenomena.”"Although price action is the most critical of factors in charting, volume tells us the conviction of the marketplace.”  The fact that volume has NOT confirmed the major US indexes move higher over the last 8 months is driving technical analysts to drink.

You have a small core of true believers who are buying and holding and a vast amount of short term traders. The buy and hold investor simply NOT returned to this market.  Without more money coming into stocks its hard to see markets advance – yet they do and in doing so seem to break the basic rules of supply and demand economics.

Bottom Line – Technically I don’t understand why markets are moving higher, but they are. There are fundamental reasons – Stimulus, emerging market growth , etc., that help to justify a rally, but technically you have to at least scratch your head  Old saying, “Markets/stocks can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator rose a bit to +8.75 yesterday. +60 or above = Overbought -60 or below = oversold. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. – Investors411 manta is its much better/safer to buy when stocks are over sold and sell when they are over bought. When the $NYMO is around zero those who can accept more risk can nibble on stocks & ETF’s

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

From yesterday – “If stocks do not take a hit Monday, on worries over potentially more stringent rules in financial sector, we have one strong bull market and get on the train.”

YOUR Stock List

This list has been developed by YOU sending in your stock picks, we discuss them individually (usually by email) and if they are trending positively they get included in YOUR list. Thanks to many of you who have sent in choices. If you payed attention to the List published on each Tuesday, you’ll find a lot of winners. One way to back check this is to use the calender at the top of the blog – click on past Tuesdays.

NB -Last Week’s comments in black. This week’s violet. Chart links underlined in Blue

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

  • CAAS Volume dropping as stock consolidates = bullish A buy the dip stock Some increase volume behind dip, but at strong support level - A risky Chinese company, but its now or never time to buy the dip
  • PCLN Volume dropping as stock consolidates = bullish A buy the dip stock Still consolidating after breakout – A buy the dip stock
  • F Still going up, but too overextended – wait Huge sell off last week and strong but less volume rally yesterday -Too risky
  • IMAX Investors411 owns this stock – Went elliptically higher and now must find base. wait. Made a strong move yesterday and broke out of  short term consolidation patternA buy the Dip Stock
  • CSCO, Like AAPL exploded higher, now consolidating A buy the dip stock Seems too over extended from 50 day moving average, but clearly a market leader – Will move with technology
  • SHOO failed breakout but still has potential Consolidating in what looks like cup & handle trading pattern – A buy the dip stock
  • ICON, Volume dropping as stock consolidates = bullish A buy the dip stock – Failed breakout back in consolidation pattern – Potential, but too risky
  • VPRT Falling in heavy volume = bearish – Wait Consolidated and made a move yesterday – Possible breakout candidate
  • DGIT Thinly traded  Still consolidating in weak volume = bullish A buy the dip stock - A bunch of higher lows over last month in “ascending wedge” pattern & at its resistance level – Potential breakout stock
  • CTCT Thinly traded - Exploded higher too over extended wait Dropping  – has potential but too thinly traded.
  • VCI starting to consolidate Still Tempting, but risky Big fall/volume Friday partial recovery yesterday – too risky
  • CREE dipping in weak volume = bullish, a buy the dip stock Still consolidating a buy the dip stock
  • SNDK dipping in weak volume = bullish, a buy the dip stock Dipped last week and major rally yesterday A buy the dip stock
  • VSH Dipped/fell in moderate volume. Tempting Strong volume on down days -Weakening
  • HMIN Falling Too much downside volume. Rallied in weak volume Too many other stocks look better
  • RINO – Broke out yesterday in heavy volume = bullish – a buy the dip stock Failed breakout, lower low, Other stocks look better
  • CTRPFaces a resistance level & just dipped in weak volume a buy the dip stock Dipped in weak volume last week, rallied off support level – a buy the dip stock
  • CNAM Went elliptical now finding base. Huge risk but huge reward Wait - Fall in weak volume, two day rally in strong volume – Big risk China stock, but potential big reward. If you got guts a buy the dip play

New plays that have similar 3d fundamentals as IMAX. Personally I’m more comfortable with this group because I believe in the fundamentals behind 3d technology.

  • DWA (Dreamworks) Consolidating but some big down volume days – wait – rallied yesterday at 50 day moving average – potential. Think their new Dragon 3D movie will be a success and move this stock up.
  • CNK (Cinemark)  Still a bit over extended – Tempting Consolidated over week & broke out of that pattern yesterday. A buy the Dip Stock
  • RGC (Regal Entertainment) Too overextended wait for dip.- Tempting Just keeps moving higher

32 million new heath care customers (Obama/Pelosi health care bill) means some stocks are going to rally on this increased supply and the growing aging population of baby boomers who need health care. New group

  • ESRX (Express Scripts) – (see yesterday’s blog) Investors411 own this stock. - Broke out, now a bit over extended wait for dip.
  • TEVA (Teva Pharmaceuticals) Gone elliptical – wait for dip. (Sorry had trouble downloading last two charts from Stockcharts)

Note – The above section is meant to educate YOU and is basically technical analysis. Many other factors like overall market movement, sector analysis, fundamental analysis, your level of risk and other factors should be considered before buying.

Analysis - Overall market conditions (McClellen Oscillator) are more favorable this week than last. However they are not optimum for buying (see above). 3D stocks and health care sector continue to outperform. Most of these individual stocks do rise in higher volume and fall in lower volume – a bullish sign YOU have certainly chosen some winners.

Personally I  nibbled yesterday ESRX & TYH (an ETF – more tomorrow) and will nibble some more today in a dip.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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