Our last 4 “YOUR stock Lists” have beaten the S&P 500

Today we introduce #5

Some notes on YSL #5

  • Thanks to everyone who participated – Without your help there would be no list.
  • Check out the MO (see below – McClellan Oscillator) before buying. Usually the lower the MO is the better your chance at a successful trade.
  • Be careful of chasing over extended stocks - Stocks too far above their 50 DMA’s or 17 DMA’s
  • Ticker Symbols are linked to charts. You can adjust chart to different time periods.
  • Stocks are NOT listed in any order of preference.
  • The first four  stock lists ran 2 to 3 months.
  • We have tried to diversify by industry group
  • Overall strategy is to buy the dip of trending stocks
  • Many of the stocks were chosen because they did not do as badly as most other stocks when the markets sank over the last month and/or recovered faster.
  • We hope this List  again beats the S&P 500. But the S&P may go down and so can YSL #5
  • My favorite way of looking this is to choose a handful of stocks and buy when the MO dips. The lower the better.
  • Paul often comments on these stocks in the comments section of the blog.
  • This new list will replace YSL#4 in the POSITIONS section of blog today

Obviously we can’t guarantee anything and you take this advice at your own risk


See Paul’s Corner at bottom of blog for

YSL #5

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.04% low
NASDQ -0.47% low
S&P 500 +0.09% low
Russell 2000 -0.10% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • Flat day with little volume. It looks like bulls have run out of gas and need another dose of good news.
  • Dividend Stocks – Because may of you like dividend stocks for the long term – Here, from Seeking Alpha is 3 favorite high yield dividend plays, It include one favorite AGNC at 18.8% dividend.

The 3 Legs – Europe, USA & Emerging Markets

  • From Yesterday - One of the three legs, Europe is very wobbly and most investment eyes are focused on it. Its got worse in Europe At 8:50 AM EST German market down -3.47% If the world’s largest economic block (the EU) is toasting it will take everything else with it. Right now, a recession in Europe seems almost inevitable and possible for USA LINK & LINK
  • Never forget our mantraHigh Frequency Traders Rule US & European Equities – These entities make their decision in microseconds and are not based on long term trends. They account for low volume rallies and other atypical technical market behavior.
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) rose to +21.14 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold)( +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG oversold) Chart shows we are nearing overbought territory. Therefore getting bearish, but overall still = Neutral
  • Reading The Tea Leaves – From Yesterday – Short term momentum still with the bulls. Momentum died yesterday AM and it looks like markets have risen about as far as they can on the Fed’s promise of near zero rates till mid 2013. European problems look like they will wash ashore here.

Sure Looks Like Bears are coming back

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • Repeat - May 20th forecast still standsThe May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move.
  • The Fed’s promise of low interest rates through 2013, has brought the Long Term Outlook for US Stocks close to NEUTRAL. But that’s just not good enough with Europe’s problem’s growing and the USA jobless rate. The Fed stimulus programs have kept this market moving higher and stocks may drop till the Fed devises another QE 3. This was all predicted in the May 20th forecast. Stocks have to drop low enough for the Fed to act.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – It’s been shaky, but so far NLY has held up reasonably well through current stock market slide. NLY is the only position in Investors411 hypothetical portfolio

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD – (Long Gold ETF) Obviously a MAJOR mistake to sell and take meager +3% profits. Like a millions of other people who see worldwide economic problems ahead – waiting to buy another dip. Just own some.

If/when the MO low enough I will buy some YSL #5 stocks for our hypothetical portfolio

Disclaimer - Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY, SNH, KMP, MO, HTD, T, ABV & AGNC and a few other smaller positions I have puts on about half of dividend stocks I own. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I also own some  SDS & TZA (ETF’s that double and triple short the market) as hedges. Buying some more hedges (TZA) at open. For those that do options – I bought a November 19th call on GLD for $355 at 191.

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Long Term Outlook (for US Economy)

BEARISH

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Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE


Paul’s Corner

Before we look at Your Stock List, it’s important to think about the damage that has been done to the market these past few weeks. This has been a very fast “V” type correction and rarely does the market correct as fast on the up side as it fell on the down side.

My good  friend and mentor Ian Woodward produces a great monthly news letter and this month he discussed the elephant marching around in the market. He points out several times that it’s gonna take some time to repair the damage:

“However, I point to the length of time it takes to get out of the doldrums and it is at least a few months. The recent dip of the Flash Crash is well implanted in our minds of 4 months, before the fresh rally resumed starting on 9/1/ 2010.”

Keep this in mind and the fact we may NOT have seen the bottom of this correction. Buy the dip as Barr always suggests and it might be a good idea to make partial purchases and add to your position as the market improves. In other words, don’t sink your grandchildren’s inheritance all at once! This has been and still is a very treacherous market, it’s tough for seasoned day traders and unsuitable for retail investors. Just because we are releasing this watch list doesn’t mean it’s all clear to play!

These past few weeks has been good for stock evaluation by simply watching  how the chart performed. Some of your suggestions performed poorly these past few weeks and were dropped.  A  broad group of stocks has been selected. The date at the end  of the stock profile is the expected earnings date.

Your  Stock List – 5

AKRX- Akorn, Inc. engages in the manufacture and marketing of diagnostic and therapeutic pharmaceutical products, hospital drugs, and injectable pharmaceuticals in the United States and internationally.  Aug 02.

ABV - Companhia de Bebidas das Americas–Ambev engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, draft beer, carbonated soft drinks, malt, and other non-alcoholic and non-carbonated products in Brazil and the Americas. Sept 03

NLY - Annaly Capital Management, Inc., a real estate investment trust, engages in the ownership, management, and financing of a portfolio of investment securities. Aug 03

AAPLApple Inc., together with subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets personal computers, mobile communication and media devices, and portable digital music players, Oct 19

CPHD - Cepheid, a molecular diagnostics company, develops, manufactures, and markets integrated systems for testing in the clinical market, as well as for application in legacy biothreat, industrial, and partner markets. Its systems enable molecular testing for organisms and genetic-based diseases by automation.  A YSL 4 stock. Oct. 21

CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. develops and operates fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants in the United States. Oct 19

CROXCrocs, Inc. and its subsidiaries engage in the design, development, manufacture, marketing, and distribution of footwear, apparel, and accessories for men, women, and children. Oct. 27

GMCR - Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. operates in the specialty coffee industry in the United States and internationally Oct 27

HANS - Hansen Natural Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the development, marketing, sale, and distribution of beverages in the United States and internationally. The company principally offers natural sodas, fruit juices and juice drinks, energy drinks and energy sports drinks, fruit juice smoothies and functional drinks Nov  04

HLFHerbalife Ltd., a network marketing company, sells weight management, nutritional supplement, energy, sports and fitness, and personal care products worldwide. Nov 01

LULU - Lululemon Athletica Inc., together with its subsidiaries engages in the design, manufacture, and distribution of athletic apparel and accessories for women, men, and female youth primarily in Canada, the United States, and Australia.

RESRPC, Inc., an oil and gas services company, provides a range of oilfield services and equipment to the oil and gas companies primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Technical Services and Support Services Oct 02

TSUTIM Participacoes S.A. provides mobile telecommunications services through global system mobile (GSM) technology to business and individual customers in Brazil. It provides prepaid and post paid services.  Aug 21 (Note: TSU just did a stock  split and many charts still haven’t been corrected)

ZAGG - ZAGG Incorporated designs, manufactures, and distributes protective coverings, audio accessories, and power solutions for consumer electronic and hand-held devices,  Aug 15

For future evaluation, stock pricing will be at the close today August 18 and we will report using a dollar weighted average.

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.

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